US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming
U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg forecasts. The comment section
presents the key elements behind the median forecasts.

Import/Export Prices (percent change)
Tuesday, April 14 at 8:30 am ET Actual
Median: Mar20 Feb20 Jan20
Import Price Index -3.2% — -0.5% flat
Export Price Index -1.9% — -1.1% +0.7%

Comments: The import price index is expected to decrease -3.2%, while the export
price index is expected to fall by -1.9%.

March Retail Sales (percent change)
Wednesday, April 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual

Median Mar20 Feb20 Jan20
Retail Sales -8.0% — -0.5% +0.6%
Retail ex mv -5.0% — -0.4% +0.6%
Retail ex mv+gas -5.0% — -0.2% +0.7%

Comments: U.S. retail sales are set to drop -8.0% in what could be the
largest m/m decline on record. Sales hit rock bottom when they declined -4.3% in
November 2008 during the global financial crisis. Gas station spending likely
fell sharply in March after gasoline prices plummeted, and rising vehicle prices
should put pressure on March auto sales. Excluding motor vehicle and gas station
sales, retail sales should fall -5.0% after a -0.2% decline in February.
Spending at restaurants and businesses in leisure and hospitality likely fell
markedly in March as public health officials enforced social distancing
guidelines and non-essential businesses were forced to close to curb the spread
of the coronavirus.

Empire Manufacturing Index (index)
Wednesday, April 15 at 8:30 am ET Actual
Median Apr20 Mar20 Feb20
Index -35.0 — -21.5 12.9

Comments: The Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to drop to -35.0,
which would be the lowest level ever recorded on the index, down from March’s
-21.5. The last lowest reading was in February 2009 when the index reached
-34.3.

Industrial Production (percent change)
Wednesday, April 15 at 9:15 am ET Actual
Median: Mar20 Feb20 Jan20
Industrial Production -4.2% — -0.6% -0.3%
Capacity Utilization 73.8% — 77.0% 76.8%

Comments: Industrial production for March is expected to fall -4.2% after
declining for three straight months, while capacity utilization is expected to
drop to 73.8%.

Business Inventories (percent change)
Wednesday, April 15 at 10:00 am ET Actual
Median: Feb20 Jan20 Dec19
Inventories -0.4% — -0.1% +0.1%

Comments: Business inventories for February are expected to decrease by -0.4%
after January’s -0.1%.

Initial Jobless Claims (millions)
Thursday, April 16 at 8:30 am EST
Actual
Median Apr11 Apr04 Mar28

Claims 5.00m — 6.606m 6.867m

Comments: U.S. initial unemployment claims filed through April 11 are expected
to climb to 5 million Thursday, slowing from last week’s 6.6 million level but
still shattering records dating back to 1967. The Department of Labor said in
its latest weekly unemployment insurance report that the coronavirus was
beginning to have a “wider impact” and that states reported seeing an increasing
number of job losses in retail and wholesale trade and construction. Claims
should remain elevated in the coming weeks as states work through a backlog of
applications and non-essential businesses remain closed.

Housing Starts & Building Permits (millions)
Thursday, April 16 at 8:30 am ET Actual
Median Mar20 Feb20 Jan20

Starts 1.320m — 1.599m 1.567m
Permits 1.300m — 1.452m 1.551m

Comments: March housing starts and building permits are expected to fall to
1.320m and 1.300m, respectively.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (index)
Thursday, April 16 at 8:30 am ET Actual
Median Apr20 Mar20 Feb20
Index -30.0 — -12.7 36.7

Comments: The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to fall
sharply to -30.0 in April, reaching its lowest level since March 2009, during
the global financial crisis.